The 21st Century Supply Chain

12 Responses to “Constrained planning vs. finite capacity scheduling: which way to go?”

  1. Dave Shirey

    I certainly am not going to disagree with your main conclusion. When we look at the business problem, it is essential a linear (or non-linear) programming problem. The difficulty has always been that there are so many variables and it is so difficult to set the coefficients for the variables, that solving this problem is almost impossible.

    Without getting too geeky, much of the work of mathematicians in the latter half of the 19th century and early 20th was to show that the world (as defined by mathematics) was not deterministic. That is, given a set of initial conditions, I can’t necessarily extrapolate any distance into the future. And that is exactly what we are trying to do with our capacity systems (and with MRP II in general).

    The truth seems to be that the horizon that I can control is very short. And we have labored mightly over the past decade to make that horizon even shorter. And many of the decisions we have made (single source vendors, etc.) have made it harder to respond within that short time.

    Since I can only control a short horizon I think the emphasis today has to be on reducing the manufacturing horizon (the lead time), and providing some flexibility in case things go all to pieces (if we can’t get something from one guy we need to get it from another or else stockpile it ourselves inventory turns be damned). I really feel that strategy has to be an integral part of any kind of capacity system. The last ten years have proven what Godel knew – you can’t predict the future for very long.

  2. Lars

    Hi Martin,

    +15 years experience of implementing APS systems have made me draw exactly the same conclusions as you. Often consultants and clients don’t see the forest for the trees…………

    rgds

    Lars

  3. John

    The modeling of a very simple business flow can be a very taxing and complicated process. Typically systems allow only a single quantitative figure to be input to represent the capacity of any given activity. If one was to more acurately describe the capacity it would consist of more complete statistical representation of average capacity, deviation around the average, and shape of the deviation. Computer models which seek to utilize these broader factors are available but the users must be sophisticated in order to make use of them.
    I very much agree with Dave. The real success factor lies in reducing the period of uncertaintity to the degree that it economically feasible. Each business must analyze the risk/reward related to this process.
    Software is not the answer to all problems. In businesses which have a significant degree of uncertaintity involved in their supply chain, it may be that surplus capacity and/or inventory is a more realistic approach to responding to variation than investing in computer modeling which attempt to forecast the variation.

  4. Ben

    I’m of two minds on Finite Capacity Scheduling and Constraint Based Planning. If a factory needs to implement these methods, it may mean the factory layout and flow is too complex for a person to understand–implying the constraint migrates to all parts of the production processes. F

    For people who run factories it is important for them to identify what is the most valuable and expensive resource in the plant so they can make plans to protect it when things go wrong. FCS and CBP tend to become black boxes that do their calculation and present solutions that will be close to optimal but will confuse the operators. I would rather see factories simplify their production flow so it is very clear what the critical path is, and then consider implementing FCS or CBP. First, the factory will be more understandable to the operators and, second, it will make the solutions much easier for the analytical engines.

    So I am all for optimizing factories and I tend to lean toward constraint based methods, but effort should be spent on simplifying the flow and ensuring the constraint is the constraint. In other words, as Goldratt would say subordinate all other operations to the necessity to exploit the constraint.

    Ben

  5. Jim Kennedy

    It concerns me when I read so much information regarding the planning process. So many
    systems are implemented where it is taken for granted they work as intended. In recent times
    I have asked whether there are the proper inspections to see if the intended effects are actual.

  6. Stefan de Kok

    Although I have to agree that FCS systems fall short, this article ignores an intermediate solution: Advanced Scheduling systems.

    Within APS (Advanced Planning and Scheduling) the better Constrained Planning (CP) systems fall under the Advanced Planning umbrella. Solutions of this type typically have a longer time horizon and higher level view of the underlying data as indicated in the article with all the described benefits.

    Advanced Scheduling systems fill the gap where a broader coverage of the supply chain is needed (yet still within the confines of the own company), but a high level of detail is required. These systems cover all of FCS footprint but extend over material call-offs including all the constraints on these.

    For example I encountered a scenario where bulk product was loaded in compartmentalized train wagons. Due to contamination constraints, the train compartments, the pipes feeding each compartment and the silos from which the pipes fed product all were under very tight scheduling constraints that require a solution of high level of detail. FCS does not cover the pipes and the train compartments, CP can cover them but lacks the level of detail needed, yet Advanced Scheduling solutions exist that cover the requirements perfectly.

    Admittedly, this is a rare scenario, but there are other common scenarios that would benefit equally from breadth and detail of Advanced Scheduling.

  7. Martin Buckley

    I appreciate all the comments posted, and I do not see anything I can argue with. My main point at the base of it all is that a holistic approach to planning in the supply chain is preferable to a piecemeal approach to try and focus one’s energy on sections of it. When dealing with limited resources, the best ROI is achieved by integrating your supply chain, so all pieces work together in the most efficient manner possible. Part of this process should involve simplification and optimization of each piece so they can be integrated with minimum effort and into a single entity. In order to manage this holistic supply chain, a user friendly software solution that can model the complete chain is mandatory.

  8. Michael Pitcher

    I think you might find that a group has solved the capacity and material constraints dilemma. Constraints Management Group proposes that Actively Synchronized Replenishment (deals with material constraints) can be combined with a Dum-Buffer-Rope model. Very interesting paper can be found at http://www.thoughtwarepeople.com.

  9. Dennis Baker

    I’m glad you clarified you point in #7. With all the fancy “Buzz” words flying around I totally missed that. Am I missing something, are there folks out there that are not selecting, deploying or upgrading end to end business systems for their supply chain?

    I’ve been doing this for an awfully long time and it just doesn’t seem that complicated to me. Dead nuts your planning factors in conjunction with how aggressive you want to get with your inventory turns, “manage” your supplier relationships to where you can bank on what they tell you mixed in with a little good old fashioned management by walking around….

    Oh yea, and have your staff read “The Goal” – it’s a little less confusing.

  10. Samit

    Hi Martin,
    Working for a company making End to End Constrained planning tool I agree with you on the superior ROI, value etc. However there are situations that require you to choose a Finite Capacity Scheduling tool.
    The Limitation of an END to END linear programming based tool on a complex supply chain network is run time especially when you model factory flows with complex relationships between them. In discrete parts assembly systems like an auto assembly the work centers are capacity constrained and also constrained by the sequence of the flow required. The run time grows dramatically with the complexity.

    In manufacturing set ups where the process complexity is high, and variability of both supplies and demand is high and reworking of planning is very often an Advanced Planning Tool may be unsuitable. Here Daily Scheduling may be better off with a quick hueristic based Finite Scheduler

  11. Martin Buckley

    Thanks for your input, Samit. I do agree with you that in a minority of cases, a Finite Scheduler is the best solution, especially when you are concentrating on solving a complex scheduling issue in a high production speed, high changeover environment (reducing downtime, increasing machine utilization, etc.).
    However, the run time issue can be overcome with a memory resident tool, utlisuing a fully in-memory database to significantly speed up the calculations required . As a consultant for Kinaxis, which produces a tool called RapidResponse, I know these tools can run complex analytics on large amounts of data in a matter of seconds. This ability allows the user to look at multiple what if scenario’s in a small amount of time, and gives them the ability to optimize planning across the entire supply and demand chain, not just the production floor. This also allows for a quick response to changing conditions in the business environment.

  12. Lars

    Hi,

    helping a client right now to implement a solution from http://www.optimity.com.au

    It is constraint based planning using optimization but what strikes me is the extreme ease of use. No complex and hard to understand parameters but very straight forward configuration once you have defined ABC classes for products and customers. Ideal for companies who do need to consider supply constraints as part of the replenishment planning process.

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