Comments on: To simulate or not to simulate… http://blog.kinaxis.com/2009/08/to-simulate-or-not-to-simulate/ Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:48:00 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Mark Rowbotham http://blog.kinaxis.com/2009/08/to-simulate-or-not-to-simulate/comment-page-1/#comment-4083 Mark Rowbotham Thu, 03 Sep 2009 23:37:20 +0000 http://blog.kinaxis.com/?p=1938#comment-4083 With reference to the comment made by Shuki Weiss. Many tools exist in the market place that utilise demand planning, MRP and ERP systems to provide the management team the opportunity to evaluate where they should be focusing their efforts to reduce risk and improve performance. Calculation of lost revenue due to poor supply is relatively easy number to determine if you have the data systems in place. The ability to be able to run a What-if scenario is beyond MRP as it is too busy doing the day job but all large manufacturing and supply companies should avail themselves with the capability of decision support tools Examples can be found at http://www.barloworldoptimus.com/ I don’t want this to come across as a sales pitch, there are a number of providers in the market place and the decision as to which tool/provider should not be made lightly as it will (if chosen and used correctly) be invaluable. Kind Regards Mark Rowbotham Barloworld Optimus With reference to the comment made by Shuki Weiss.
Many tools exist in the market place that utilise demand planning, MRP and ERP systems to provide the management team the opportunity to evaluate where they should be focusing their efforts to reduce risk and improve performance. Calculation of lost revenue due to poor supply is relatively easy number to determine if you have the data systems in place.
The ability to be able to run a What-if scenario is beyond MRP as it is too busy doing the day job but all large manufacturing and supply companies should avail themselves with the capability of decision support tools

Examples can be found at http://www.barloworldoptimus.com/

I don’t want this to come across as a sales pitch, there are a number of providers in the market place and the decision as to which tool/provider should not be made lightly as it will (if chosen and used correctly) be invaluable.

Kind Regards

Mark Rowbotham
Barloworld Optimus

]]> By: shuki weiss http://blog.kinaxis.com/2009/08/to-simulate-or-not-to-simulate/comment-page-1/#comment-4036 shuki weiss Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:54:09 +0000 http://blog.kinaxis.com/?p=1938#comment-4036 Dear Kerry Many do not distinguish between simulation and prediction. In prediction we use real values of the process and a statistical formulation such as MVA. Whereas a simulation is basicly built on knowledge and assorted parameters known to have theoretical rellation to that process outcome. Here are my questions, on which I would greatly appreciate your feedback: 1. When writting this article what type of forcasting did you use Simulation as I understand it or Prediction as explained above? 2. Also please tell us what software (simulation tool) did you use to do the evaluation of expected revenue loses? 3. What company produces that tool? Thanks for your kind answer Shuki Weiss Rehovot Israel Dear Kerry
Many do not distinguish between simulation and prediction.
In prediction we use real values of the process and a statistical formulation such as MVA.
Whereas a simulation is basicly built on knowledge and assorted parameters known
to have theoretical rellation to that process outcome.

Here are my questions, on which I would greatly appreciate your feedback:
1. When writting this article what type of forcasting did you use Simulation as I understand it or Prediction as explained above?
2. Also please tell us what software (simulation tool) did you use to do the evaluation of expected revenue loses?
3. What company produces that tool?

Thanks for your kind answer
Shuki Weiss
Rehovot
Israel

]]> By: Shimon Padan http://blog.kinaxis.com/2009/08/to-simulate-or-not-to-simulate/comment-page-1/#comment-4035 Shimon Padan Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:15:21 +0000 http://blog.kinaxis.com/?p=1938#comment-4035 Hi Kerry, What about building MVA process model based on operational data ? I think you need both capabilities: 1. Simulation to predict results before changes in the process are made. 2. On line monitoring (Using MVA models) for better understand the current process problem and improve the knowledge to build better simulations. If you don't have operation data, simulation will be the only way to improve your process. Your comments will be appriciated. Best regards, Shimon Padan Hi Kerry,
What about building MVA process model based on operational data ?
I think you need both capabilities:
1. Simulation to predict results before changes in the process are made.
2. On line monitoring (Using MVA models) for better understand the current process problem and improve the knowledge to build better simulations.

If you don’t have operation data, simulation will be the only way to improve your process.

Your comments will be appriciated.

Best regards,
Shimon Padan

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