The 21st Century Supply Chain

One Response to “InformationWeek presents three scenarios for ERP; but is there a fourth to consider?”

  1. Dave Shirey

    This is an interesting question.

    If SAP or Oracle does blink on the maintenance I think it will be a PR move, not a business necessity. You’ve just spent four years and $80 million putting in SAP / Oracle. And now the maintenance is high. What are you going to do? Switch to another ERP? Not likely.

    And you are right that people do not get the benefits of maintenance because it is too difficult and expensive to upgrade. But the reason people get maintenance today is not for the upgrade. It is because all of the C boys (and girls) have a lawyer frame of mind. No body can afford to put themselves in a position where they didn’t ‘do everything possible to ensure the continued success of the product’. So what happens if Microsoft or somebody comes along with an operating system that the old SAP product won’t run under and you have to upgrade? If you have dropped maintenance you are screwed. Nobody wants to take a chance on that as it is a career ender. So people won’t drop maintenance no matter what.

    I don’t think somebody will come along and take over the maintenance task. At least not easily they won’t. Talk about making instant enemies of both SAP and Oracle. They have too much invested in this to let somebody else control the show.

    SaaS does seem an interesting alternative but I think a lot of people will distrust it (although we as a society are getting very used to the idea of renting, not owning stuff). And, if you tie SaaS into Cloud Computing then it’s even worse. I know a lot of CIO’s who would never put the security and reliability of their ERP in the hands of the web. But many, particularly at smaller companies will see this as a solid alternative. No doubt about it. I just don’t know if it threatens S/O.

    What it comes down to is this. The basic logic of ERP is mature. It is not going to change. And every package that does ERP has the same common core. Maybe it’s already too late, but what we need is a base ERP package that has a solid file structure behind it and provides all of the basic functionality you would need. And this core will be like a black box. It will never be opened, never be touched, never be upgraded. And it will be cheap because there is no development or update costs.

    Surrounding this will be a set of completely integrated packages that perform specific functions and each software vendor could have their own take on this. There would be no integration required to attach one of these and what you would end up with is a cafeteria style ERP; the base core that everyone uses plus whatever additional packages you really feel you need (or you could build some of the packages yourself.

    The only problem with this scenario is that it will never happen. It’s too logical to ever catch on. The closest we would get (unless IBM does it) is a consortium of retailers or somebody to start building a common system and so scare S/O into backing down. But it would never be completed because no agreement could ever be reached over what the core should contain.

    So the question remains, of the people who don’t go to SaaS (and eventually SaaS will be very expensive too), how expensive does it have to get for the people who voted for SAP or Oracle to say enough, and retrench back to a smaller, cheaper ERP system.

Leave a Reply